Peter Schiff-Deflationary Period Good for the US Economy and Struggling Americans

Today, Peter Schiff has announced his plan to help struggling Americans. If you do not know who Peter Schiff is, he is an American author, businessman, financial commentator, and a 2010 candidate for the United States Senate. He is also president and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. and is often quoted in major financial publications and frequently makes guest appearances on internet radio as well as CNBC, Fox News, and Bloomberg Television. He also is the host of the podcast Wall Street Unspun.


Schiff is known for extremely bearish views on the United States stock market, bond market, the US dollar, and the United States economy in general. Recently he has stated that a deflationary period would be good for the US and struggling Americans to be specific.

With unemployment still uncomfortably high, the housing market down, and the consumer price index (CPI) down three straight months, at Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress this week he was very careful to downplay deflation and to assure markets that the Federal Reserve has the capacity to reverse deflation, should it occur. However, Bernanke's comments didn't settle the deflation debate, nor did they convince Peter Schiff that the Fed chairman knows what is going on.


In an Article today, Schiff stated "I don't know where anyone thinks prices are falling,” alluding to rising prices for food, healthcare and energy. He also declared "I don't know where most people do their shopping but I don't see falling prices. To me, prices are rising." While the Fed believes it has prevented a deflationary spiral such as Japan faced in the 1990s from taking root, Schiff sees more government stimulus analogous to feeding an addiction. He states that “we are high on government stimulus; the US needs to go “cold turkey” from more monetary stimulus and government spending

After Bernanke’s testimony yesterday, Schiff stated "It's not that the Fed has done too little, they've done too much, interest rates are too low, they need to be much higher.” He says the federal government is spending too much, they need to spend a lot less, and government stimulus is the source of our problems." Schiff believes the U.S. economy is addicted to government stimulus and is at risk of overdosing. He stated "They're trying to sober up a drunk by giving him more alcohol - it won't work."

Schiff does concur with the view that there will be economic would become weaker if the Fed and Congress force the economy to go "cold turkey" rather than slowly weaning it off stimulus. But the pain would be short-term; however, any short-term pain will be well worth the long-term gain, and may even avoid another Great Depression.

Schiff believes that even though we have been in the worst recession since the Great Depression, at the moment, deflation is non-existent because the government has created so much inflation that they have prevented prices from falling. Schiff stated. "It would have been a relief for a lot of Americans...if things cost less and the cost of living was falling in line with a weaker economy."

Schiff believes inflation is a much greater threat than deflation. In his view the government created inflation by creating too much money, keeping interest rates at zero, and increased spending. The result of this government induced inflationary period is that Americans are soon going to be paying much more for food, clothing, energy, healthcare, etc. However, the prices of financial assets and real estate are not going anywhere but down, according to Schiff.

Authors note: We all know that the US cannot continue to print dollars, just because they have the ink and paper. Since this is a precious metals blog, I feel I should interject with the notion that when paper money is worthless (seems to be heading in that direction), people will fall back to anything of value. PMs such as Silver and Gold will likely be used to purchase goods and services. I know what I am describing is the SHTF scenario, but it always pays to be prepared.

On Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. Peter Schiff wrote: “I have long been an advocate of fortifying investment portfolios with precious metals. Holding actual precious metals is important, but it is primarily a way to preserve capital. I believe that a fully realized precious metals portfolio also includes some exposure to the companies that explore and produce gold and silver.”

In the paragraph above, Schiff is advising holding precious metals as a hedge and investing in mining companies. Of course he would not say “take all of your free money and buy Silver and Gold” because that would be reckless and likely to cause a panic that could precipitate the SHTF. Now, this last statement is not a fact, it is just my thoughts and opinions. I DO recommend buying as much silver and gold as you can. How much? That depends on how much you are comfortable with. Most places of business still want payment in dollars, so do not use all of your money to buy PMs or you might find it hard to pay your mortgage, rent, utilities, etc.

Why It Is Crucial To Your Finances and Future to buy Gold and Silver-Goldwars.blogspot.com

I may have written on this subject before but I cannot stress enough, do not wait! You should be buying precious metals such as gold and silver now.  I have stated my point of view, now I give you an other's POV.  Kirsty Hogg has written an article in her blog GoldWars on why it is now crucial to your finances and future to buy gold and silver? I urge you to read this treatise as it explains why PMs guard against inflation, why Central banks are manipulating the prices of PMs, and much more. With the National debt at 13 Trillion and counting as the paper flies through the printing presses, our economy cannot hold back the floodgates of inflation much longer.  Read it for yourselves, but more importantly, ACT!

MoMoney beaks down the Gold Chart

I confess that I know squat about the technical analysis of reading charts.  When I try to explain things I talk about fundamentals. But for the chart people, Mo Dawoud explains the technical charts for gold , silver, and other commodities on his MoMoney blog.  Once a month he posts a  update on the gold chart. This month he wrote "Previously, I stated that gold broke the 1,227 resistance and it is now clear for an uptrend until it hit 1,500. Instead, the chart forms another resistance level at 1,250 per ounce. It made three attempt to break the resistance, but it could not close above the resistance level". He still believes gold will break this resistance before the end of the summer with high volume. Furthermore he believes gold will hit 1,500 before the end of the year. The light volume shows that there is no big sell off in gold which indicates that the “big players” are still in the game and that is a good sign for Main Street investors. 

The fundamentals of the economy will dictate when will the price of gold will move above the resistance. If the Federal Reserve decides to continue their quantitative easing (the definition is when the Feds decide to print more money), He believes it will help gold start the uptrend to 1,500 or more. However, He is sticking with his prediction that 2011 will be a great year for gold.

To read more technical analysis on gold or to see the current chart go to MoMoney Blog

This Little PIIGGY: Spain and Gold Prices

Since the economic situation in the EU was either better or less worrisome last weekend, many investors' felt that market trading was less risky.  Therefore, traders tentatively sold gold for stocks. Global stock markets  posted modest gains encouraged by the U.S. late-day rally on Friday.

There may be more volatility ahead  for gold prices as they continue to take their cue from the risk trade. In the short term, a weaker US dollar could boost demand for gold as the dollar-backed commodity becomes an inexpensive purchase in other currencies; furthermore, any significant pullback could lure in any bargain-hunters looking to buy gold at a discount.

Even though Spain denied rumors last week that it would be the next EU nation to request bailout funds, sovereign debt risk from Spain is waiting in the wings as a gold provocateur.  Even though the Spain's yields are on the rise. Bond yields typically rise when a government must sweeten the pot to entice  investors to lend the country money. Currently, the yield on Spain's 10-year bond is 4.59% while Portugal's is 5.33%. These levels do not yet compare with Greece's double-digit yield at the height of its' financial crisis, but investors are still worried, and any bad news out of the eurozone would trigger a gold rush as investors buy the metal as a form of money that retains value when paper currencies fail.

Gold bulls are hoping that prices can reclaim and exceed their record high last week of $1,254 an troy ounce. However, gold set that record intraday and settled under $1,250 leaving many analysts wondering if there is any momentum to this gold is bullish movement.

For the Silverbugs and base metal buyers: Monday, silver prices were rising .18 cents to $18.42, while copper was rallying 8 cents to $2.99.

The Small-Cap Investor’s Guide to Gold

A short guide sent to me by email. I thought I would share it.


With market volatility on the rise, scores of investors have been turning their sights to gold. Typically, gold and small-cap investing don’t have much overlap – but that’s not true when it comes to junior mining stocks. These tiny companies benefit from the price increases in gold, but they also offer the value-driven analysis of a typical small-cap. And right now could be the perfect time to buy shares in mining companies – here’s why…

When the proverbial fecal matter hit the fan during the week of May 3, one asset shined above all others. It was the humble yellow metal, gold, doing its part in times of panic and crisis. It held up. On May 7, gold closed above $1,200 for the first time in five months — up more than 2.5% during a week in which U.S. stocks endured a freefall. Just five days later, it hit an all-time high of $1,243.10. And the largest physical gold fund recorded its largest inflows since early 2009.

Of course, buying gold all the time is not really an investment strategy. If you bought gold in the 1980s and 1990s, your return was abysmal. So, as with all assets, there are times when gold is a really good buy and there are times when it is not. Sounds obvious, but many people seem to want to think that gold is an exception to the order of things. It isn’t.

But how do you know if gold is cheap? Well, intelligent people usually advance a couple of arguments.

One is that on an inflation-adjusted basis, gold is 30% less than its all-time high in 1980. Okay, that’s true, but it’s not particularly timely because by that measure gold has been cheap for three decades. And who’s to say that the 1980 gold price is a benchmark we should pay attention to, anyway? By that way of thinking, the NASDAQ is a bargain, too, because it trades at a big gap from its 2000 high. But is it? I think not.

Another point advanced by the “gold is cheap” crowd is the old monetary base argument — that gold’s price tends to track the monetary base over long periods. The monetary base is essentially bank deposits and currency. It’s like the seedlings of inflation.

This argument is a little more interesting. Yet, as the government has added huge piles to the monetary base in the last year or so, the gold price has responded in a muted way. This next chart shows what the gold price would have to be to “catch up” to the monetary base.

QB Partners, a New York-based hedge fund, really likes this argument. QB writes: “The graph shows visually how much U.S. dollar purchasing power has been lost. We think gold is cheap by a factor of almost 7 times.”

If a gold price of $7,000 an ounce doesn’t strike you as implausible or absurd, QB’s next comment might. QB says the chart “does not necessarily imply a target price for spot gold. The gold price could move higher than that if it experiences a blow off top, like all other bull markets tend to do before exhausting themselves.” So, $7,000 an ounce, you see, is just some kind of base case.

Maybe it’s not so implausible. Strange stuff happens all the time in markets. If I had told you on May 6 that Accenture — a $40 stock with a $29 billion market cap — would trade for a penny a share the next day, you would have thought I was nuts. Yet, on May 7 it did just that, if only for a second.

But the gold market is different because it’s so small. Even a small amount of interest in gold will send it up a lot. Just imagine if people decide a small sliver of that tall bar of financial assets should be in gold. We’re talking about some serious pressure on the gold price.

That’s a nice scenario, but I don’t invest in nice scenarios. I invest where I can find value. Speculative upside is a plus. Those kind of stocks give you that added juice on the price of gold. A cheap gold stock is even better – that’s why I’m recommending that my readers pick up gold miners, not just gold itself…

By Chris Mayer

NIA: Introduction and Mining Stock Recommendation

The National Inflation Association (NIA) is an organization dedicated to preparing Americans for hyperinflation and helping Americans to survive and prosper in the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis. The U.S. government’s obligations include a $12.8 trillion national debt, $6.3 trillion in Fannie/Freddie debt and $60 trillion in unfunded obligations for programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The NIA believes that the United States for all intents and purposes is bankrupt and Americans need to take steps immediately to protect themselves from the potential loss of the purchasing power of their U.S. dollars.

NIA believes the largest financial crisis in history is ahead of us as a direct result of the U.S. government unwilling to accept a much needed recession. We are now at a point where our national debt is impossible to pay off. Due to rising interest payments on our national debt, it is unlikely the U.S. will be able to balance its budget ever again. Foreign countries will eventually stop lending the U.S. money and the Federal Reserve will most likely have to print the money to fund our deficit spending out of thin air.

The NIA’s ultimate goal is to help as many Americans as possible become aware of the disaster we are rapidly approaching. The NIA believes that the wealth of most Americans could get wiped out during the next decade, but it will be an opportunity for a small percentage of Americans to become wealthy by investing into companies that historically have prospered in an inflationary environment, such as gold and silver miners and agriculture producers.

Their website has extensive articles, news, reviews, stock suggestions, gold and silver seller reviews, and coin melt values. The articles are written by the staff of the NIA, and you can subscribe to the free NIA newsletter to have them emailed to you before they are posted online. You can check out their website at http://www.inflation.us/ and you can sign up for the newsletter on the same page. The NIA also has a Facebook group site that is open to the public.

Today, MIA announced a new stock suggestion, Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (CDE). Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation is one of the world’s leading silver companies and is also a significant gold producer. In 2009, gold production increased 56% to 72,112 ounces. Coeur has a strong Latin American presence and will have its first full year of production in 2010 at its newest operation, the Palmarejo silver/gold mine in Mexico. The company also holds 100% operating interest and exploration rights at underground mines in southern Chile and Argentina and one surface mine in Nevada; and owns a non-operating interest in a low-cost mine in Australia. The Company is finalizing the construction at its Kensington gold project in Alaska, and conducts exploration activities in Argentina, Chile and Mexico. You can read the CDE profile at http://www.inflation.us/cde.html

As usual do not buy stock on my recommendation or anyone else’s. Always do your own DD.

Free Online Report on Gold

You can read a free online review copy of the brand new breakthrough financial report from Gold, Silver, and Energy expert Byron King entitled "The Curse of the Incas".  It is a very interesting read full of historical information and predictions for gold and silver prices, although it is ultimately an invitation to subscribe to his services.
http://agorafinancial.com/reports/OST/Inca/OST_IncaGold.php?code=EOSTL355&o=81348&s=82914&u=49657430&l=98572&r=Milo

Gold Prices Soar on EU, US troubles

Gold prices soared today as investors sought out the metal's safe haven. Prices have traded as high as $1,130.20 and closed at $1,126.90 as the U.S. dollar index slipped 0.49%.  Gold's spot price rose $18.10 according to Kitco's gold index.

Most investors bought gold as an alternative investment, seeking the safety of a hard asset over a pandemic of struggling currencies. Not only is the US dollar in trouble but the EU's multibillion-euro bailout for Greece is sketchy, and now Spain, US, UK, France and Germany are at risk for losing their triple-A credit rating from Moody's. Many analysts are anticipating further euro weakening and subsequent inflation.

Further currency debasement could help support higher gold prices, but global rate hikes might provide some short-term downside. After China's higher-than-expected inflation reading, analysts are expecting the government to raise interest rates to control economic expansion.

The Fed has pledged to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time despite fledgling economic recovery. But wary investors are ever vigilant, watching for any tell that the Fed will tighten rates sooner than expected. Gold has historically been the go to hedge against inflation bought by investors. Thus, any signs that the government will end the flow of free money will impact gold and other precious metal prices.

Gold Wars: A Very Knowledgeable PM Business Owner's Blog

I wanted to let my readers know of a blog called Gold Wars. The author is a gold and silver business owner named Kirsty Hogg. Conversely, the blog is not about her business, but instead addresses issues like hyper-inflation, the long term manipulation of gold and silver, current economic events, and other related items. We all know (at least those who read my blog) that the Federal Reserve continues to print money even as the Federal debt is out of control (just check that little ticker on the left side of the page). These are just some of the topics Kirsty discusses. Like me, she is trying to educate folks that paper money is virtually worthless.

Ever since 1971 when President Nixon took the US off the gold standard and replaced our money with fiat currency, the value of he dollar has eroded and many fear the US economy will soon reach a melting point if something is not done about it. She also addresses what you can do to prepare for the worst, if it comes. The number one way to protect your wealth is to buy precious metals such as gold and silver. Kirsty recommends and I agree that it makes sense to store your wealth in something that is inflation proof. As Kirsty put it “I for one will be buying gold and silver in a variety of forms.” So if you want an education in gold, the economics behind it and the value of owning precious metals, I recommend Gold Wars as required reading. Gold Wars link: http://www.goldwars.blogspot.com/.

APMEX - The Last Maple Leaf!

Over the past three years The Royal Canadian Mint produced special, limited edition .99999 pure Gold Maple Leaf coins to exhibit their engineering excellence in coin minting. These coins have been reserved for special edition releases only and have been produced in very limited mintages. These unique, special edition coins featured a three maple leaf design in 2007, a two maple leaf design in 2008, and a lone maple leaf on this, the final coin in this series.

We are excited to announce that APMEX has recently secured a small quantity of limited edition 1 ounce .99999 pure, 2009 Gold Maple Leaf coins - the last in this series. Now through Monday March 15, 2010, at 12 noon (CST) these coins have been priced as low as $59.95 over spot while supplies last.

The Gold Maple Leaf was first launched in September 1979 as a 1 ounce investment grade coin. The Gold Maple Leaf was .999 pure until 1982 when its purity was raised to .9999, setting a new standard for gold bullion coins. Every Maple Leaf coin is guaranteed by the Government of Canada for its weight and purity. As a result, Maple Leafs are highly valued and are easily bought and sold anywhere in the world where precious metals are traded.

Don't miss this great opportunity to invest in one of the world's purest gold coins. At these prices, our special edition .99999 pure 2009 Gold Maple Leaf coins will not last long. Order your limited mintage .99999 Maple Leaf coins today while supplies last!

Respectfully,
David McCarty
Director of Marketing
American Precious Metals Exchange

A Very Good Reason To Hold Gold

Federal Deficit in the Danger Zone - Kiplinger.com
As federal spending continues to rise, a crushing mountain of debt looms.

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A very good reason to hold gold!